We noted a few days ago that the Fed’s decision to lower interest rates wasn’t unanimous. Two Fed voting members dissented, including Eric Rosengren of the Boston Fed. Most interestingly, Mr. Rosengren released a memo two days later revealing his logic and justifying his decision in a series of charts.
https://www.bostonfed.org/news-and-events/press-releases/2019/statement-of-eric-s-rosengren
It’s a quick and easy read and we recommend it as a way to understand what some feel is the dis-connect between the change in Fed policy and economic reality. Mr. Rosengren cites the following:
- The Unemployment Rate is Near 50-Year Lows
- The Trimmed Mean PCE Inflation Rate is at 2%
- The U.S. Economy is Growing Somewhat Faster than Potential
- The Cost of Credit is not Elevated
- Market Volatility is not Elevated
- Credit Spreads are not Elevated
- Stock Prices are Near All-Time Highs
- Corporate Leverage is Near an All-Time High
However, we believe it’s important to note that some of the indicators Mr. Rosengren flags are backward-looking in nature, in our view.
Of course, since then we’ve gotten more negative new on trade with China, talk of currency wars and a substantial market sell-off. So, it’s possible they may have to change their tune if sentiment starts to impact the numbers from here.
The views presented herein are those of Validus Growth Investors, LLC (“Validus”) as of July 2019 and are provided for informational purposes only. There is no guarantee that any historical trend illustrated above will be repeated in the future, and there is no way to predict precisely when such a trend might begin. The information is based on the economic and market conditions as of this date. The information is not intended as a discussion of the merits of a particular offering and should not assume that any discussion or information provided herein serves as the receipt of, or as a substitute for personalized investment advice from Validus or any other investment professional.
This material is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute a solicitation. The material is not intended to be relied upon as a forecast, research or investment advice and is not a recommendation, offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or to adopt any investment strategy. There is no guarantee that any forecasts made will come to pass.
