The Fed has repeatedly said that they are “data dependent”. Historically, many have assumed “data” to be defined as backward-looking economic data (i.e. GDP growth, unemployment rate, inflation, retail sales, etc.) and forward-looking economic indicators (i.e. consumer confidence, housing starts, small business confidence, etc.). The somewhat esoteric stuff that academics and economists get excited about. […]
Picking up on a theme from recent posts, central banks continue to demand help from fiscal policymakers. According to Bloomberg article entitled “Central Bankers Are Sick of Rescuing the World Economy Alone”, while central banks in Europe, Japan and even the US seem prepared to act in the short-term to ease monetary policy, they have […]
We have indicated previously, that the evidenced-based justification for anything but a “one and done” 25-bp Fed rate cut in July — as an offset to policy hubris in December — was thin. Still, the market seems to be pricing in more. If we are to believe the June Fed minutes, a 50-bp rate cut […]
Quant Funds Are Sticking With Cheap Stocks – and They’re Losing Big Quant funds have had a hard time over the last year. Powered by stock characteristics, these quant funds have been losing to the fundamentally-driven active-managed funds. This is consistent with the idea that value investing has struggled since the theory behind many of […]
The S&P 500 briefly hit 3,000 today — something that has never happened in history – before closing slightly below this level. Can the markets keep on roaring higher purely on the hope of favorable monetary policy? Not unless the Fed plans to embark on a new rate-cutting cycle — a “one and done” move […]
As monetary authorities around the world race to make things “easier” and provide almost unlimited liquidity in the face of decelerating growth, they are getting very little help from government bureaucrats. Many, like the International Monetary Fund, have gone so far as to suggest that it is massively irresponsible to rely so heavily on monetary policy alone.
Italian bonds traded significantly higher earlier in the week as the Italian coalition government pledged to meet a lower budget deficit target in 2019. Despite the debate over whether or not this actually represented financial discipline or a series of one-time revenue windfalls, the market reacted positively.
Since the end of May, gold has been on a run unlike we have seen in over five years – up 10.5%. The last time gold reached $1,400 per oz. was back in 2013. While silver (the other precious metal) is up 6.4% during that time as well, it continues to lag. Presently, the gold/silver […]
In their own way, Alliance Bernstein and Goldman Sachs seem to think so. Both published articles this week on CNBC. As we pointed out over a week ago, it is a fact that “Value” has tended to substantially underperform “Growth” over the last 10 years. Will there be a reversion to the mean, or is […]
Earlier last week, on the heels of the ECB’s “hint” that it would start easing again (or even more), an additional $714 billion of bonds achieved negative yields, sending the global total to a new record. It may be hard to believe, but around the world (mostly in Europe and Japan), roughly $12.5 trillion of […]