What a run it’s been in the equity markets! Too far, too fast? Possibly. In our view, we need to see solid earnings reports from the 4th quarter 2019 – maybe even some growth – and some enthusiastic guidance for the first quarter of 2020. Frankly, without confirmation from the fundamentals, the tremendous equity performance […]
CEO Exodus — A Foreboding Sign?
So far in 2019, according to Challenger, Gray & Christmas, 1,480 chief executives of US companies of scale (10 employees / in business 2 years) have exited their posts. These numbers are the highest year-to-date through November since the company has been keeping track since 2002. Things seem to have accelerated over the last few […]
Record Highs — Investors Not So Sanguine
While the markets may be at all-time highs, individual investors are abandoning equity funds faster than at any time over the last two decades. According to the Wall Street Journal which utilizes data from Refinitiv Lipper, investors have pulled $221 billion from US stock mutual funds and added $85 billion to US exchange traded funds […]
Potential Positive Tailwind for Consumers
According to Bloomberg’s Matthew Boesler, the U.S. economy reached an important milestone in October that ought to put it on a more sustainable footing going forward: wage growth eclipsed mortgage rates for the first time since 1972. In data published earlier this month, the Labor Department announced that average hourly earnings comprising more than 80% […]
Five Things to Consider -Week of November 25th 2019
Value Stocks Are Back in Vogue, for Now Could value stocks be back for good? According to the article, one Bank of America poll definitely indicates a positive view, with confidence in value up 21% from October. This could be partially due to the increasingly large gap in P/E ratios between value and growth stocks. […]
The First Pillar: Buyer Behavior Matters
One of the “Pillars” of our investment process is Buying Behavior. In essence, we want to see positive cash flows into a stock from individuals / institutions with ostensibly the best knowledge of the company and its prospects. With the exception of buying during “quiet periods” when earnings are about to be announced, “insiders” (Including […]
Lots of Cash on the Sidelines
According to an article in the Wall Street Journal, “nervous investors have socked $3.4 trillion away in cash.” At the same time, hundreds of billions of dollars have come out of equities in favor of the aforementioned money market funds and bonds. Wow – we haven’t seen this kind of conservatism since the financial crisis. […]
Drinking the Sand
I often find myself pondering the hypocrisy and obvious logical contradictions of our world today. As a society, we are quick to condemn testing of any kind on animals, but are happy to let the likes of Facebook, Amazon, Apple, Netflix, and Google (FAANG) perform social experiments on us without consequence. Consumed by the safety […]
Five Things to Consider- Week of September 16th 2019
How the Minivan Once Saved Chrysler – Now It’s Near the End of the Road This article embodies an automotive paradigm shift that has been occurring over the last few years. The car consumer has become very sport utility vehicle centric. This article emphasizes that not only is this preference one of practicality – but […]
Peloton – A Star in the Making?
I recently listened to an interview of the Peloton CEO on Bloomberg on the day of their public listing. I was really impressed – by the level of hubris, that is. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2019-09-26/peloton-is-playing-the-long-game-and-investing-in-new-tech-ceo-says-video The stock came public at $29.00/share and proceeded to close down 11% to $25.76 (today it’s trading at $22.60). When asked about the […]
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